Arctic Geopolitics

Long considered a strategic periphery, the Arctic has become one of 2026's fastest-moving great-power theatres:

  • NATO launched "Arctic Sentry" in February 2026, expanding multi-domain posture in the High North; Cold Response 2026 brought together roughly 32,000 personnel from 14 nations across northern Norway and Finland.
  • Russia-China cooperation has deepened: Beijing's Polar Silk Road strategy (folded into the Belt and Road Initiative since 2017) has seen Chinese research vessels tracked through the Bering Sea and a second consecutive large polar expedition in 2026, while Russia leans on Chinese capital and markets amid sanctions.
  • The US interest in Greenland, first voiced strongly in January 2026, has triggered a European military build-up response from Germany, France and the Netherlands in the region.
  • India remains an Arctic Council observer (since 2013) but analysts argue it needs institutional recalibration — currently split between the Ministry of Earth Sciences and the MEA — to treat the Arctic as a genuine strategic pillar rather than purely a scientific-research interest, given its implications for shipping routes, critical minerals and India's broader multipolar diplomacy.